Escalation of the Politico-Military Tension in Georgia Could Result in Unforeseeable Consequences for the Caucasus, and the Near and Middle East

August 14, 2008

Escalation of the Politico-Military Tension in Georgia Could Result in Unforeseeable Consequences for the Caucasus, and the Near and Middle East

Yerevan—Today, the National Citizens’ Initiative (NCI) convened a roundtable devoted to the recent developments in Georgia. The meeting brought together MPs, political scientists, human rights advocates, NGO officials, and media representatives.

Welcoming the audience with opening remarks, NCI coordinator Hovsep Khurshudian underscored that the Armenian body politic was extremely concerned with respect to the recent events in Georgia and noted that these developments had a direct impact on Armenian interests. “The military operations already have resulted in the influx of thousands of refugees to Armenia and in the disruption of the regular activity of transit and transportation routes entering the country,” he said. “What is more, thousands of our compatriots who live in Georgia also have suffered by this situation.”

The day’s first speaker, chairman Stepan Grigorian of the “Globalization and Regional Cooperation” NGO and political scientist, argued that the marionette-like nature of the South Ossetian authorities was the real cause behind the resurgence of the conflict. And this situation, according to the speaker, allowed for the foreign powers—in this case, Russia—to pull official Tskhinvali into perilous processes. In Grigorian’s view, by deploying a large number of military units into Georgian territory Russia violated all the commitments it had assumed as part of its peacekeeping mandate and, consequently, it no longer can remain as a mediating side. “And therefore the conflict transcended onto an all-encompassing phase, and, in addition, Russia was prepared for an informational warfare in advance and now it conducts that warfare most effectively,” Grigorian maintained.

In his turn, political scientist and Heritage MP Stepan Safarian maintained that the true reason behind the escalation of the tension was the Georgian side’s operation toward “reestablishment of the constitutional order in South Caucasus” and its inaccurate calculation. This calculation, according to the speaker, was based on the hypothesis that the Russian side would remain passive just like in 2004 when, in violation of the ceasefire, the Georgian troops had entered the Kodori Gorge, which is a part of Abkhazia. And on the other hand, according to Safarian, these developments will accelerate Georgia’s accession into NATO. “Georgia made an attempt to make the West, and specifically NATO-member countries, get involved in resolving the matter of its territorial integrity. But in actual fact, Georgia will have to enter NATO without Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” Safarian concluded.

The remainder of the session was dedicated to an exchange of views and recommendations among the public figures and policy specialists in attendance. Noteworthy were interventions by Heritage MP Armen Martirosian; coordinator Mane Hakobian of “The People are Masters of the Country” civic union; chairwoman Karine Danielian of the “Sustainable Human Development” NGO; and several others.

For further information on the National Citizens’ Initiative, please call (37410) 27-16-00 or 27-00-03; fax (37410) 52-48-46; email info@nci.am.

Armenian version of the press release

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