September 9, 2004

National Citizens’ Initiative Examines Armenia’s Place in Regional Security

Yerevan—The National Citizens’ Initiative (NCI) today convened a specialized policy discussion on “Armenia in the Current Security Systems of the Region” to discuss optimal options for Armenian security amid a rapidly changing region undergoing global geopolitical developments. In view of Russia’s apparently scaled-back, and the US’s and European Union’s evidently growing, impact upon the region the roundtable brought together policy makers, public figures, academic circles, and representatives of the mass media and NGO communities to consider Armenia’s challenge of making a strategic choice among the available security systems in the region in order best to meet its needs and avoid becoming the “odd man out.”

Given the fact that Armenia is the sole regional member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), while its South Caucasus neighbors aspire for NATO accession, key questions arise. In which security system should Armenia take part in the future, is it possible to combine close cooperation with both systems on a complementary basis, how real are the prospects for the establishment of a common Caucasian security system? These and other issues critical to the future of Armenia formed the day’s agenda.

Hovsep Khurshudian, analyst of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), greeted the participants and capacity audience with opening remarks. “We should seek ways both to provide for the security of Armenia and Mountainous Karabagh and to foster their sustainable economic and human development. Otherwise their safety would be endangered in the near future,” Khurshudian maintained, attaching importance to making correct choices in view of contradictory events and in particular NATO’s enhanced role in the region.

In a paper on “The Prospects for Forming an All-Caucasus Security System,” Giro Manoyan of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation reflected on the perspective of shaping a common Caucasian approach based on the region’s place at the crossroads of European, Eurasian, and Middle Eastern security spaces. “The perfect form for the provision of regional security is the inclusion of all the states of the region within the same system. However, at present that is not yet possible to achieve,” Manoyan asserted. In his opinion the peoples of the region hold different perceptions on security matters; for some it is a guarantee to protect what they currently have, whereas for others it is a way to bring back their losses. Manoyan is convinced that high living standards, economic growth, and democracy will play a large role in accomplishing security.

ACNIS analyst Stepan Safarian focused on regional security guarantees in reference to the results of both a specialized questionnaire and a public survey on “Armenia’s National and International Security in the Next Decade,” conducted by the Armenian Center for National and International Studies in August. “The problem is that Armenian society perceives both NATO and CSTO with reservations.” The speaker sees a future Armenia within the same security system as its neighbors. Otherwise, the alternative will lead to “closed gates and regional crises.” The main impediment to formation of a shared system in the South Caucasus is the existence of non-resolved or “frozen” conflicts in the region.

Against the backdrop of pipeline policies and the region’s inclusion at the forefront of the Euro-Atlantic agenda, Yerevan State University lecturer Aram Haroutiunian focused on “NATO or Collective Security Treaty Organization, European Union or CIS?” In his assessment Armenia faces the following four challenges: the Ankara-Tbilisi-Baku triple arc, the possibility of sudden political volte-faces in the neighboring republics, the Karabagh challenge, and the efforts to resolve other regional conflicts by force, that is insatiable revanchism. On the NATO-CSTO dilemma he opined: “It is expedient to preserve the traditional strategic relations within the CIS, which is a condition for maintaining the equilibrium among regional forces. Otherwise, we might increase the level of our vulnerability.” As for NATO, its penetration into the region is happening step by step. The Pankisi operations were a vivid example of this, Haroutiunian said.

The remainder of the session was devoted to exchanges of views and policy recommendations among the public figures and policy specialists in attendance. Noteworthy were interventions by MP Grigor Haroutiunian of the People’s Party of Armenia; former minister of state Hrach Hakobian; Aramazd Zakarian of the Republic Party; former presidential adviser Levon Zourabian; Artak Poghosian of the Republican Party; Edward Antinian of the Liberal Progressive Party; Haroutiun Khachatrian of the Noyan Tapan news agency; Narine Mkrtchian of the National Press Club; Petros Makeyan of the Democratic Fatherland Party; Samvel Shahinian of the National State Party; and many others.

The National Citizens’ Initiative is a public non-profit association founded in December 2001 by Raffi K. Hovannisian, his colleagues, and fellow citizens with the purpose of realizing the rule of law and overall improvements in the state of the state, society, and public institutions. The National Citizens’ Initiative is guided by a Coordinating Council, which includes individual citizens and representatives of various public, scientific, and educational establishments. Five commissions on Law and State Administration, Socioeconomic Issues, Foreign Policy, Spiritual and Cultural Challenges, and the Youth constitute the vehicles for the Initiative’s work and outreach.

For further information, please call (3741) 27-16-00 or 27-00-03; fax (3741) 52-48-46; e-mail info@nci.am