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March 21, 2003 National Citizens’ Initiative Examines Iraq and Regional Implications Yerevan—The National Citizens’ Initiative (NCI) convened today a specialized policy seminar on “Armenia and Current Regional Realities.”
NCI coordinator Hrach Hakobyan made opening remarks to the capacity audience. “The crisis in Iraq and the ongoing developments flowing from it will substantially influence Armenia’s strategic prospects. In order to promote an informed public dialogue, it is necessary to facilitate a multi-disciplinary, policy-oriented discussion on this pivotal issue. The Iraqi problem and its plausible impact on Armenia’s relations with Turkey, Iran, Europe, Russia, and the United States will inevitably be placed in priority on Armenia’s foreign policy agenda among other matters of current concern,” he opined.
Davit Hovhannisian, professor at Yerevan State University, delivered the keynote address on “The Iraqi Crisis: Its Impact on Armenia and the Entire Region.” “Already in 2002 it had become clear that warfare would inevitably be unleashed. The past year gave rise to a broad variety of deliberations and clarifications as to the tenor and content of war-related issues. War’s principal meaning is reflected in the Europe-US, euro-dollar confrontation. It has taken the euro a mere five years to carve out from the world economic system—and incorporate into its own currency zone—such major regions as Europe, the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, China, CIS countries, and India,” he said. National Academy scholar Ruben Safrastian treated “Armenian-Turkish Relations in the Context of the Iraqi War.” “In recent months Turkish foreign policy has undergone a sharp turnabout, assuming unpredictability as its main trait: Turkey is beginning to act on its own, delineating major strategic objectives and daring to step into conflict with its most reliable ally. As to Armenian-Turkish relations, I see no basis for their establishment. Neither side, and especially Ankara, is initiating any measure to this end,” he said. Former Minister of National Security Eduard Simoniants’s intervention, again within the context of the Iraqi dilemma, addressed “Armenia’s Cooperation Prospects with Principal Partners: Russia and the United States.” “The Iraqi crisis was predictable, but surprisingly it took Armenia aback. Irrespective of close cooperation links, Armenia did not uphold the Russian stance on this issue. Nor did it express support for the United States. In my opinion, we lost the policy edge,” he stated. Member of Parliament Semion Baghdasarian expressed the need for close bilateral and multilateral consultations. “As a result of the method by which Armenia’s foreign ministry presents our traditional pro-Russian position, the Armenian interest on the whole loses significance for both Russia and the United States. We ascribed an unimportant role to ourselves on this very important matter,” he said. Political scientist Shahen Karamanukian shored up a different view. “I think we need to pursue pro-active relations with the Arab world, Iran, and Uzbekistan,” he maintained. Yuriy Babakhanian of the foreign ministry’s Middle East department said that Armenia has a specific stance on the Iraqi conflict and it has been clearly expressed. “Not every single detail can be made public, but we continue to seek to ensure the security of the Iraqi Armenians and at the same time not to lag behind the processes underway. As for Turkish-American relations, they will be good over the long term and will not be affected by the current situation,” he stated. The formal deliberations were followed by questions, answers, and a lively exchange among NCI founder Raffi Hovannisian; Vicken Cheterian of the Caucasus Media Institute; political scientist Rubik Yegorian; Iranian affairs specialist Garnik Asatrian; Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) research director Professor Tatoul Manasserian; “Harmonious World” NGO representatives Gayane Markosian and Samvel Manukian; ACNIS analysts Sergei Shakariants, Vrezh Jijian, Vahagn Aglian, Stepan Safarian, and Hovsep Khurshudian; and many others.
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